2018年1月31日星期三

如何閱讀巴菲特的信

在巴菲特1983年股東信的《附錄》裡談論“商譽”下有這樣一段話:
If you cling to any belief that accounting treatment of Goodwill is the best measure of economic reality, I suggest one final item to ponder.
Assume a company with $20 per share of net worth, all tangible assets. Further assume the company has internally developed some magnificent consumer franchise, or that it was fortunate enough to obtain some important television stations by original FCC grant. Therefore, it earns a great deal on tangible assets, say $5 per share, or 25%.
With such economics, it might sell for $100 per share or more, and it might well also bring that price in a negotiated sale of the entire business.
Assume an investor buys the stock at $100 per share, paying in effect $80 per share for Goodwill (just as would a corporate purchaser buying the whole company). Should the investor impute a $2 per share amortization charge annually ($80 divided by 40 years) to calculate "true" earnings per share? And, if so, should the new "true" earnings of $3 per share cause him to rethink his purchase price?

Ch Liu兄阅後有兩個問題:
一、With such economics, it might sell for $100 per share or more。巴菲特如何計算出該公司的銷售價應為100美元,甚或更高?
二、當該公司的“真正”每股盈餘只有3美元時是否重新估算只值60美元?

筆者回答:
第一条問题:
若果市場平均的合理投资回報率是5%,這個投资能每年给5元盈利,而價格只是20元,回報是25%,人們便會把手上只有5%回報的投资賣掉,買
入這投资,直至大家争相加入抬高它的價格至$100元,回報和其它投资的5元看齊才停止。

第二条問题
财务報告利潤,有别於投资利润,投资人只看多小現金收入,而财報则受限某些法律規则,例如2元的商譽攤銷並非一项計算投資回報的支出,但财務報告顯示是的盈利卻要扣減,致財務利潤變成只有3元,财務報告的回報率只有3%,投資利潤仍然是5月。

啓示
1.财务和投资的回報兩者是有分别,前者PE是33倍,但實際後者只是20倍;
2.除了這點外,巴老想說的是有形资産回報(Return on Tangible Assets)的重要,例如有另外一支股票B,同樣要投资100元才赚到5元現金,若果B公司保留全部年利润再擴充,下年利潤會增長5%至5.25(5x(1+5%),巴老的公司卻能運用這5元赚多1.25(5x25%),總利润上升25%至6.25,因为公司原來有形资産只需要20元,就能赚到5元,固此它保留的盈利,都能按這比列獲额外利益。
3.有形资産回報率丶增長率和股價的関係
到第二年,B公司的PE是100➗5.025=19.9倍,股神的公司卻下跌至16倍(100➗6.25),若果市場的合理回報仍是5%,B公司股價會上升至105元,股神的股票卻會升至125元,回報達25%。茫格曾説,股價長遠的升幅等同於ROE(實際應是有形资産自由現金流回報率),正是這意思。

但實際又是否真的如此?

筆者以身求証,真金白銀買入了两支ROE極高的企業,並用了幾年時間,下篇文说其中的领悟。

20 則留言:

  1. 謝謝!異常詳盡解答。期待再續。芒格的話不知見於何處。我讀到過大陸網上的文章說,巴菲特認為一家公司長期的ROE就是該公司的長期投資回報率。但是,我也未能找到出處。

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    1. 我是在這位朋友整理的Wesco 股東大會報告閲讀,也忘記是那年説的。

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    2. http://mungerisms.blogspot.ca

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  2. 這就是我買入維他奶原因,除左ROE數字高之外,仲要分析埋基本面,維他奶生產一個廠房所需要資產少,可以提高盈利會比較高,但都要有基本面支撐,本身產品有市埸先可以開闢中國市埸。

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    1. Ki Wan兄,说對了,ROE高的原因正是同一筆再投入的资金/或者要再買新资産的錢,可以産生更高的利潤。

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    2. 我認為高ROE只係其中一個指標去分析,對正在擴充既工業股有一定作用。
      睇一份財報要留意成個故事,對388而言ROE其實作用不大,因為佢根本唔使投資太多新資金去推動盈利,盈利反而係受外來因素影響,所以388賺到既錢唔需要投入太多。
      每間公司都有一個故事,700既ROE=23%,但700既盈利同資產亦無太大相關,ROE指標分析只係合適係好特殊不變條件就比較岩。就算工業股我好少睇ROE,直接分析睇佢而家固定資產,產房值既錢可以產生幾多盈利,維他奶固定資產只有20億但能產生每年6億盈利,再投入幾億起產又產生多點,2319 固定資產300億,但每年只賺30億。就算只係工業股,所需要分析除左數字上更重要係實際情況,市埸方面好重要。

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    3. 很好的觀察和分析力.

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  3. 請問啟示的第一點的那兩個PE是怎樣計出來?

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    1. 投资金额100元,财务盈利是3元,PE33倍;不計商譽攤銷的投资利润實際是5元,100➗5的PE是20倍。

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  4. 這一封1983年的致股東信與附錄可能是巴菲特走出Graham的價值投資法最重要的文獻,值得一讀再讀:
    http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1983.html
    從中已看得出不少凱恩斯投資哲學的要義。
    謝謝巴黎兄的詳盡解釋。我們應該多向你提問,這更能讓你充分展現出你的學養。

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    1. 多謝引文,這封1983年巴老的信,是很好的學習和參考資料,
      Ch Liu兄過譽了,我歡迎大家交流,能力之內,很願意和大家分享。

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  5. 如一企業沒有做過收購/併購動作,
    其財報是否會沒有會計商譽和商譽攤銷?

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    1. 90後小子,對的,沒有併購就沒有商譽和商譽攤銷。

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    2. 我們分析時,是否應把商譽攤銷撇除,以尋找真實投資利潤,
      以及把商譽在資產中除去,調整資產淨值。

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    3. 是,商譽攤銷並不是支出。

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