2020年4月30日星期四

投資/投機的區別 S00

在證券分析一書談到一般人對投資和投機區別的誤解。

多數人認為投資就是:
1.買債券或優先股;
2.非Margin操作;
3.長期持有;
4.買的目的是為股息收入;
5.買藍籌證券;

投機就是
1.買股票;
2.以Margin操作;
3.快速轉手;
4.追求本金上升;
5.買風險證券

Ben Graham 解釋實際並非如是,例如債券因為多股票一個償付本金承諾而看似投資,但這承諾不能靠口而是履行金融義務能力,一無資產,二無盈利能力的公司的債券和它的股票都是一樣無區別的一文不值,唯股票反會在公司賺大錢時多了一個資本增值。

Margin按金在大升市時更容易獲得,市場這時候通常會認為是投資(例如年前的Margin買債),反之在大跌市時候, 證券行收緊Margin,而證券的價格大幅度低於內在價值,例如月前很多不錯的債券價格大跌非常波動,Yield高至看來非常投機,若這時以Margin買債卻其實非常安全。

長期或短線買賣非買者能可以主動控制,例如買入後突然股票價格大幅度超過內在價值,就算原本投資的也應該買出獲資本利潤,反之,投機者買入原因可能只希望本金上升,但因為價格下跌而被牢套而長時間持有。

追求本金和股息並沒有衝突,沒有派發的保留利潤能帶來資本增值,而以派發了的股息再買回股票,同樣能令未來手上持有的證券總市值上升的相同效果。

藍籌企業公司會倒閉或被老千的情況比較小,但以遠高價內在價值買入所招致的損失並不亞於任何次級公司。

作者總結投資者和投機者的分別是在於兩者的操作者自己想法的不同,任何人只要是1)透過詳盡分析,並追求2)本金安全和3)回報有保證的4)分散和/或對沖的操作,就是屬投資。



10 則留言:

  1. 投資和投機我兩者並用,有時候告訴自己,所有的股票都是衰股,會升的股票是好股。之前清了倉,給自己一點時間思考,然後漸漸地再入市,今次選擇跌得最慘的sectors, 例如airline(美國和巴西),cruise, restaurants, banks (歐洲), energy (美國和巴西)和 casino,又滿倉了,不過留了後備金防萬一。今天一輪大升之後,收獲不錯。經驗告訴我,物極必反。我有加注匯豐銀行,但沒有大注,多謝巴黎兄的提醒,不要太集中。

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    1. 投資是一種操作,就算好股也敵不過市場對單一股票的偏見,所以最好仍然是分散。

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  2. 謝謝巴黎兄分享!個人覺得1和4尤其重要,要做功課,也要控制風險,不宜訓身成副身家放在一種不保本的投資工具上。

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    1. 加非貓,是的,這些都是投資的精闢所在。

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  3. An investment operation is one, which upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting those requirements are speculative. (Security Analysis, by Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd, 6th ed., p.106)

    我的翻譯是:
    “投資操作建基於透徹的分析上,承諾資本的安全與承諾一個令人滿意的回報。凡是不符合這些要求的操作就是投機的。”

    因為Graham的這一定義與這一句話在The Intelligent Investor一書中被引用,所以,我檢查了中文繁體與簡體的翻譯,幾乎都一致地把promises譯為“確保”。我不同意這一翻譯,道理很簡單,1929年至1932年,Graham自己當基金經理,把客戶的錢(資本)虧損高達70%(69.5%),雖然遠低於S&P 500的86%與Dow的89%,但是,如果我把10萬美元交給你管理,現在只剩下3萬美元,還談什麼確保?



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    1. 投资运作是根据深入的分析,承诺本金安全以及回报率令人满意的操作,不符合这些条件的操作则是投机。
      《证券分析》原书第6版,人大版 2013年4月1版1刷,巴曙松等译。

      我去查證了,巴曙松自己在譯序裡就使用“確保”而不是“承諾”,可見他本人也沒能區分二者之不同!是他組織一群人裡有人能區分二者。事實上,證券的投資,是一種概率的估算,也就是說,是計算“向下損失的風險有限,而向上的回報可觀”的數學期望值(mathematical expectation),所以,當你還未下一個投資決定時,你不是光算能賺多少錢,你必須同時計算會虧多少錢!只當盈利勝算遠大於虧損賠率時,你的投資才可能擁有巨大的安全邊際,而投資也變得風險可控與收益可期。我們真正需要做的恐怕就是Keynes所說的“calculating where we can”(能計算就計算),只要做到了真正的Buy-Low,你便耐性地等待“向上可觀的回報”吧!


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    2. 其實所謂保證也是只建基於合理,詳盡和有系統的分析,這總好過投機人的亂槍打雀的希望快速發財,尤其是在市場賺錢從來就不容易。

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  4. 多謝巴黎 sir 講解
    JH Hung

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