2019年1月12日星期六

偉大企業與路人甲

買入貨真價又低殘的普通企業,把期望設到最低的只関注分紅回報,放小些心思在資本增值,熊市就不會影響心情。

等到股價大漲就賣走,把資本的賺錢當是幸運而非個人眼光。

例如筆者在 $梅西百货(M)$ 價格跌到18元,分紅有7%買入,40元就走貨,就是知道自己沒有本事學到巴菲特能買入持有偉大企業不放。

偉大企業不容易有,有也不是我這些路人甲乙丙nobody可以發現到,自己也沒能力知道梅西百貨十年後如何,何必像那些死不悔改寫一大輪何謂偉大企業和堅持長期持有文章丶另一方面個人組合卻跑輸大市九條街的紙上專家呢?

**Macy公布剛過去的11及12月份銷售只有微不足道的增長,全年預測只能持平,股價大跌17%,現價25.5元。



12 則留言:

  1. John Neff主持Windsor基金,績效斐然!他的成功與優異業績依靠兩點:
    一、依靠選擇低市盈率的優質股票。
    二、堅定的賣出策略。
    讀他的書有一句話我永不忘記的就是:
    Every Stock Windsor owned was for sale.
    更何況Macy是零售股,Neff也說過:
    零售行業並不是一個讓人放心的行業。

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    1. 謝謝Ch Liu兄的引句,這真是可圈可點,
      John Neff是我尊敬的其中一個投資者,
      有一段時間我沉迷學選偉大企業,讀很多專家的文章,
      這些文章都很有說服力,但是當我再核對他們的投資成績,
      卻是另一件事。
      我不知道是什麼令他們發揮不到所說的,但就得出一個結論,
      過度強調"偉大企業,長期持有"有如毒㽼,防礙投資者的"common sense"。

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  2. 2009年2月23日The Bank of Nova Scotia(BNS.TO)下跌至24.2加元時應該算是“偉大企業”,並且值得“長期持有”,因為這家銀行既穩健又派息歷史悠久的公司,凱恩斯稱這種公司為“利潤股”。我相信它日後還會繼續如此,只要等到下一次這樣的機會買進,就能長期享用它的利潤。這家好公司上一次2009年時一共有31天股價在30加元以下!

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    1. 加国银行出名稳健,先收股息,有好价就卖,价格普通但公司生意不错,就持有下去吃息。

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    2. 大陸目前13億人口只有1億多中產階層。中產階層的特徵之一是:買房,買車。汽車屬於景氣循環股,當它的週期發展至頂還不賣出,就會陷入Graham所說的“it is better to sell and pay the tax than not sell and repent”困境。但是,過去十幾年來,中產階層買房,在大陸,幾乎每一個都呀呀叫:一生一世為銀行打工!我相信在低價時買進招商銀行應該與加拿大的The Bank of Nova Scotia有異曲同工之妙!雖然招商銀行派息比率只有30%多,不及The Bank of Nova Scotia的40%多,但在香港,仍算是不錯的投資標的。

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    3. 純財務ROE招行冠絕內銀,但就是價格貴。

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  3. Graham為防禦型的投資者所寫的第14章那7個準則事實上是一種Buy-Moderate and Hold Approach,主要考量的是Large,Prominent and Conservatively Financed Corporations.假如調降7個選股準則中的第6與第7準則,也就是說,PE從15倍向下調降與PB從1.5倍向下調降,則Buy-Moderate and Hold Approach便變成Buy-Moderate/Low and Hold Approach。可惜他自己並沒有真正實踐過這個非常好的建議,而終其一生都在忙他非常確定的Buy-Low–Sell-High Approach。1949年以price was moderate in relation to current earnings and asset value買進GEICO,完全不同於Buy-Low–Sell-High Approach,或可稱之為Buy-Moderate and Hold Approach直至他離開華爾街解散公司全數賣出。這是他最賺錢的卻是成長股投資法,並且需要親自坐鎮於公司領導層。所以性質有別於第14章所推薦的方法。第14章為防禦型投資者所寫的方法難道也絕不賣出嗎?不是的,你看看他在該章後面談防禦型投資者最常買進的“公用事業股”怎麼說,他說:
    For the defensive investor the central appeal of the public-utility stocks at this time should be their availability at a moderate price in relation to book value. This means that he can ignore stockmarket considerations, if he wishes, and consider himself primarily as a part owner of well-established and well-earning businesses. The market quotations are always there for him to take advantage of when times are propitious—either for purchases at unusually attractive low levels, or for sales when their prices seem definitely too high.

    The market record of the public-utility indexes—condensed in Table 14-6, along with those of other groups—indicates that there have been ample possibilities of profit in these investments in the past. While the rise has not been as great as in the industrial index, the individual utilities have shown more price stability in most periods than have other groups.* It is striking to observe in this table that the relative price/earnings ratios of the industrials and the utilities have changed places during the past two decades.

    These reversals will have more meaning for the active than for the passive investor. But they suggest that even defensive portfolios should be changed from time to time, especially if the securities purchased have an apparently excessive advance and can be replaced by issues much more reasonably priced. Alas! there will be capital-gains taxes to pay—which for the typical investor seems to be about the same as the Devil to pay. Our old ally, experience, tells us here that it is better to sell and pay the tax than not sell and repent. (pp.359-360)


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    1. 重温Graham的文章,倍感市场是很容易影响我们,价值投资很容易明白,但活用很难。

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  4. 點算好。。
    30元入了梅西百货打算食息,
    市況不好唔知會唔會影響派息

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    1. Ho兄,若有留意,我己在高位清貨。
      Macy銷售只是持平,並非倒退。
      但決定追丶揸丶沽真的要自己判斷。

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  5. 第一要估派息能否持續。。。

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    1. 是的,但应该比较选伟大企业容易。

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