45倍神股開估
早前我的兒子打兼職，筆者希望他到麥當勞，兒子說太cheap，結果到了另一間餐廳做，我的兒子不知我苦心，他不明白，一間能做到cheap神的企業，必定管理一流，若東浪費一點、西浪費一點的企業，又怎能成為行內的大哥，幾十年不倒。
假如你有兒女要做兼職，筆者建議朋友不妨讓他到一些cheap公司做，將來你的兒女可能成為大企業家，但如果他們沒有先學懂很Cheap的成本控制，那就至小有一半機會把公司泡湯。
不過要走出同輩的壓力，心理質素要很強，例如以下呢間橫掃股界，上期說跑勝股神成條街的就是cheap中之霸-----------Dollar Tree (DLTR)。在加拿打以Dollar Giant營業。
年青人告訴朋友在"一蚊雞"店打工，可能會受別人的注目禮。因為每個人都會問，你的公司賣的全部是垃，一個用了一次就爛的鑼絲批，一個不平行的水平呎，一個用了一小時多就無電的電芯。
以美加的顧客退貨不用理由，也只有非常小人到Dollar Giant內退貨，原因是顧客的退貨成本一定大過一蚊雞。
這真是一條偉大的賺錢經濟定律，只要企業賣垃圾的價低到不能抗拒，甚至低過顧客退貨腳骨力，對方買了之後便不可能蝕多一次退貨，有誰願意找人為難之前先為難自已呢？
公司繼續賣垃圾，你不斷買垃圾，這支股票就成了神仙股。神仙企業最利害之處是，他專依在Home Depot , Canadian Tyre, Walmart等大公司鄰邊，誰可抗拒便宜幾倍的價錢？
麥記如是，Dollar Tree如是。
看Dollar Tree年報最好的地方是它的只有40+頁。如果Blog友看過AIG，HSBC數百頁年報，你或會在想，看這些ABS, CDS, 大殺傷兵器的對沖說明，到底自已是否正在讀MBA或PHD的教科書？自已是否真明定假明
？早排答應過Blog友出雞，今期就把 Dollar Tree的10年數據給你們看位買入。
過去我未領略企業回購和P/B的意義、派息等意義，TJX啟發了我，應該以蝕頭賺尾看待，例如一支ROE35%，P/B是5倍的企業，我會以一間回報只有7%的企業做底線，
又假如這支股的經營數字、效率不變，市場就會以同樣的估值給她，下年我的ROE和ROI都會是一樣35%，我們亦真的可以賣出一點點股份制造股息，即高P/B買入是可以，但條件是ROE要高，企業的隱定性要強，企業的賺錢是真現金。
假如一蚊雞cheap野都能成股王，我們又為何舍易行難?
| Year | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
| Sales | 7,394.5 | 6,630.5 | 5882.4 | 5231 | 4644 | 4242.6 | 3969.4 | 3393.9 | 3126 | 2799 | 2329 |
| Gross profit | 2,652.7 | 2,378.3 | 2087.6 | 1856.8 | 1592.2 | 1461 | 1357 | 1172.4 | 1112.5 | 1018.4 | 847.9 |
| Depreciation | 175.3 | 163.9 | 159.7 | 157.8 | 161.7 | 159.3 | 159 | 140.7 | 129.3 | 101.5 | 71.6 |
| Interest | 2.8 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 4.85 | -1 |
| Net profit | 978.9 | 779.5 | 629.9 | 512.8 | 365.8 | 330.3 | 310.8 | 283.9 | 293.5 | 293.6 | 253.9 |
| Profit after Tx, Mi | 619.3 | 488.3 | 397.3 | 320.5 | 229.5 | 201.3 | 192 | 173.9 | 180.3 | 177.6 | 154.7 |
| Dividend | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| other stock compensation | 43.6 | 43.2 | 47.2 | 48.6 | 35.3 | 35.3 | 92.4 | 14.4 | 18 | 30 | 42.9 |
| EPS- basic | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.56 | 1.195 | 0.845 | 0.635 | 0.525 | 0.465 | 0.4025 | 0.3975 | 0.3875 |
| EPS- diluted | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.55 | 1.185 | 0.845 | 0.695 | 0.615 | 0.4625 | 0.4 | 0.395 | 0.385 |
| Fixed Assets | 960.7 | 825.3 | 741.1 | 714.3 | 710.3 | 743.6 | 715.3 | 681.8 | 685.4 | 613.2 | 344.3 |
| Inventory | 971.7 | 867.4 | 803.1 | 679.8 | 675.8 | 641.2 | 605 | 576.5 | 615.5 | 525.6 | 357.7 |
| Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Bank | 399.9 | 288.3 | 311.2 | 571.6 | 364.4 | 81.1 | 306.8 | 339.8 | 317.8 | 168.7 | 335.9 |
| Current Assets | 1,618.0 | 1,330.2 | 1466.3 | 1441.6 | 1192.1 | 910.8 | 1020.6 | 987.2 | 978.2 | 743.3 | 730.6 |
| Intangible Assets | 173.3 | 173.1 | 173 | 133 | 133 | 133 | 146.6 | 129.3 | 129 | 123.7 | 41.4 |
| Total Assets | 1,791.3 | 1,503.3 | 1,639.3 | 1,574.6 | 1,325.1 | 1,043.8 | 1,167.2 | 1,116.5 | 1,107.2 | 867.0 | 772.0 |
| payable | 346.5 | 286.7 | 261.4 | 219.9 | 192.9 | 200.4 | 198.1 | 135.5 | 124.1 | 114.9 | 59.4 |
| Current Liabilities | 827.7 | 734.0 | 671.5 | 610.5 | 532.5 | 549.3 | 464 | 376.1 | 378.5 | 323.2 | 310.8 |
| Long term Liabilities | 257.0 | 250.0 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 142.6 | 6 |
| Shares Equity | 1,666.3 | 1,344.1 | 1459 | 1429.2 | 1253.2 | 988.4 | 1167.7 | 1172 | 1164 | 1014 | 855.4 |
| Shares repurchases Amt | 340.2 | 645.9 | 417 | 190.7 | 0 | 473 | 248.2 | 180.4 | 48.6 | 38 | 3.8 |
| No. of Shares | 224.6 | 231.2 | 246.786 | 262.568 | 272.313 | 269.352 | 298.9 | 319.5 | 339 | 342.24 | 342.54 |
| No. of Square footage | 35.1 | 32.3 | 30.3 | 28.4 | 26.3 | 23 | 20.4 | 16.9 | 13 | ||
| No. of Store | 4,671 | 4,351 | 4101 | 3806 | 3591 | 3411 | 3219 | 2914 | 2735 | 2513 | 2263 |
| Market price | 40.12 | 42.32 | 25.50 | 16.51 | 14.24 | 9.26 | 10.58 | 8.34 | 8.91 | 10.62 | 7.26 |
| 1. Gross Profit Margin | 35.9% | 35.9% | 35.5% | 35.5% | 34.3% | 34.4% | 34.2% | 34.5% | 35.6% | 36.4% | 36.4% |
| 2. EBIT/Sales | 11% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% |
| 3. stock turnover time (days) | 45.4 | 46.0 | 46.0 | 47.3 | 51.8 | 53.6 | 54.3 | 64.1 | 66.6 | 57.6 | 28.0 |
| 4. Net profit/EBIT | 63% | 62% | 63% | 62% | 62% | 60% | 60% | 59% | 60% | 60% | 61% |
| 6. Sales/Total Assets (Times) | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| 7 Sales/Fixed Assets (Times) | 7.7 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 6.8 |
| 8. Liquid Ratio (Times) | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| 9.Total Assets /Sh. Equity (Times) | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 10.= Net Profit/Sh. Equity (ROE) | 41.1% | 34.8% | 27.5% | 23.9% | 20.5% | 18.7% | 16.4% | 14.9% | 16.6% | 19.0% | 36.2% |
| 11.EPS- Basic | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.56 | 1.195 | 0.845 | 0.635 | 0.525 | 0.465 | 0.4025 | 0.3975 | 0.3875 |
| Diluted | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.55 | 1.185 | 0.845 | 0.695 | 0.615 | 0.4625 | 0.4 | 0.395 | 0.385 |
| 12.Equity per Shares | 7.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| 13.Sales per store | 1.583 | 1.524 | 1.434 | 1.374 | 1.293 | 1.244 | 1.233 | 1.165 | 1.143 | 1.114 | 1.029 |
| 14 P/B | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.9 |
