要姓賴, 不要談宏觀經濟

巴黎：

以下是Walter Schloss總結自已半生投資生涯的16規條，有人曾問他，為何不注重宏觀經濟，只著重價值投資？價值投資的股票價格不是也會在經濟轉壞時下跌嗎？

他回答："不是這樣的，以價值投資買的股票，好環境是會升的，在經濟低迷時慢一點吧！"

一些朋友，年前叫別人不要踫美股，說美股無運行，到現在仍執迷不悟。也有一些朋友，眼見筆者的AIG大升之際，突然非常客觀清醒、並隨風擺柳地轉口風。

筆者在站內，只有一篇宏觀經濟論說，錢多貨少，貨價必升，沒有什麽高深理論，只叫大家不要見貨就買。

為何筆者不喜多談宏觀經濟呢？

因為：如果你不談宏觀經濟，你就不能夠再為自已昨天的錯誤找籍口開脫！

你不會再說，因為外圍影響、因為中央打擊乜乜、因為中央加息、因為12.5改變政策、因為對農民、對汽車、對乜對物改變了.......樣樣都不是你的錯，是其它人引致你賺不到錢！引致那支股票不升價！

不談宏觀經濟後，你就會認真考慮以下的問題：

我幹嗎從來未有好好研究、分析這間企業在變化經濟環境的考驗能力？
我為何從未有認真了解這間企業究竟價值有多少？！
我為何從不作最壞的準備？！
我的分析、思考架構方法存在著什麼問題！？

股票買錯並不是投資道路上最致命，在分析前就找定代罪人才是。而唯有你不以宏觀經濟分析買股票，你才會勇敢對自已所做的任何決定負責！

在只有20%的人賺錢的股票市場，做眾人所做的事從來不會令你有好成績！


Walter Schloss 16 rules

1. Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value


2. Try to establish the value of the company. Remember that a share of
stock represents a part of a business and is not just a piece of paper.


3. Use book value as a starting point to try and establish the value of
the enterprise. Be sure that debt does not equal 100% of the equity.
(Capital and surplus for the common stock).


4. Have patience. Stocks don’t go up immediately.


5. Don’t buy on tips or for a quick move. Let the professionals do that, if they can. Don’t sell on bad news.


6. Don’t be afraid to be a loner but be sure that you are correct in
your judgment. You can’t be 100% certain but try to look for the
weaknesses in your thinking. Buy on a scale down and sell on a scale up.


7. Have the courage of your convictions once you have made a decision.


8. Have a philosophy of investment and try to follow it. The above is a way that I’ve found successful.


9. Don’t be in too much of a hurry to see. If the stock reaches a price
that you think is a fair one, then you can sell but often because a
stock goes up say 50%, people say sell it and button up your profit.
Before selling try to reevaluate the company again and see where the
stock sells in relation to its book value. Be aware of the level of the
stock market. Are yields low and P-E rations high. If the stock market
historically high. Are people very optimistic etc?


10. When buying a stock, I find it heldful to buy near the low of the
past few years. A stock may go as high as 125 and then decline to 60 and
you think it attractive. 3 yeas before the stock sold at 20 which shows
that there is some vulnerability in it.


11. Try to buy assets at a discount than to buy earnings. Earning can
change dramatically in a short time. Usually assets change slowly. One
has to know much more about a company if one buys earnings.


12. Listen to suggestions from people you respect. This doesn’t mean you
have to accept them. Remember it’s your money and generally it is
harder to keep money than to make it. Once you lose a lot of money, it
is hard to make it back.


13. Try not to let your emotions affect your judgment. Fear and greed
are probably the worst emotions to have inconnection with purchase and
sale of stocks.


14. Remember the work compounding. For example, if you can make 12% a
year and reinvest the money back, you will double your money in 6 yrs,
taxes excluded. Remember the rule of 72. Your rate of return into 72
will tell you the number of years to double your money.


15. Prefer stock over bonds. Bonds will limit your gains and inflation will reduce your purchasing power.


16. Be careful of leverage. It can go against you.