## 2021年6月16日星期三

### 降低持股

今個月1日發生一單市場沒有什麽反應的一件事引發筆者的好奇，這件事是有點不尋常。

1.降低持股；

2.轉股至債項低而之前又受関稅影響收入的股價低殘的出口股和公用股

3.然後等運到

#### 4 則留言:

1. 瑞典的股市“專家”們推斷，這個暑假可能會有激烈的波動。我心裡想，這種猜測準確度有待驗證。瑞典與美國的股市已經長時間處於高位上，會產生大幅度的波動甚或小型股災，只是時間問題，但是，利息這麼低，市場上游資充斥，恐怕很難如“專家”們所願。我覺得巴黎兄的操作可圈可點，同意。
John Keynes在《通論》第12章下面一段話，我認為非常正確：

(5) So far we have had chiefly in mind the state of confidence of the speculator or speculative investor himself and may have seemed to be tacitly assuming that, if he himself is satisfied with the prospects, he has unlimited command over money at the market rate of interest. This is, of course, not the case. Thus we must also take account of the other facet of the state of confidence, namely, the confidence of the lending institutions towards those who seek to borrow from them, sometimes described as the state of credit. A collapse in the price of equities, which has had disastrous reactions on the marginal efficiency of capital, may have been due to the weakening either of speculative confidence or of the state of credit. But whereas the weakening of either is enough to cause a collapse, recovery requires the revival of both. For whilst the weakening of credit is sufficient to bring about a collapse, its strengthening, though a necessary condition of recovery, is not a sufficient condition.

1. 個人認為只要不損害中國，中國也會配合美國的財政政策。（人民幣升得太急對兩國也沒有好處）
但這都是估計，正如Ch Liu兄引Keynes的文，意味常常發生，所以投資者應該有個人的plan B去應對特變事情。

2. 低殘的出口股，市場上應該都好難搵到

1. 是的，好野是要花點精力去尋找。