2018年2月5日星期一

優質股定義:如何看巴菲特年報

筆者的價值投资班的其中一堂是談ROE:

https://parisvalueinvesting.blogspot.ca/2017/06/blog-post_11.html

優質公司人言人殊,每個人都有自己形容的方法,但若以數字去表達,ROE是最客觀和有説服力,因此我也花了整堂説明,本篇文是一个補充。

巴菲特希望買的股票是(只講數字,因其它的那些護城河無法统一简化表述):
1.小借贷;
2.連續十年ROE(Tangible)高於20%;
3.價格在税前10x内
於是税前利润10元,税後6.5元的公司净值32.5元的合理價是100元,PE要在15.3倍,PB在3倍内。


以下是芒格在USC的演説節錄:

Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you're not going to make much different than a 6% return - even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you'll end up with one hell of a result.  

芒格意思是说假如你付出合理價買ROE高的公司例如是18%,長遠複利回報也應該接近18%,有著數,但即使用勁折讓買ROE只有6%的低企业,長遠也會因爲複利回報接近6%而無著數。

筆者試算一下结果如何。
假设長期是指25年,沒有無形资産,按巴老的10x,按芒格的18%ROE.

税前利润=10元,税後=6.5
资産净净值=6.5➗18%=36.1元,
價格=10x10=100元;
PE=100元➗6.5=15.38;
PB=100元➗36.1=2.77倍

用筆者堂上介绍的軟件计算25年後的税後盈利是6.5X1.18^25=407.34,若果到时的PE是:

10倍PE,股價是4073,複利回報是15.94
%;
12倍PE,股價是4887,複利回報是16.8%;

15.38倍PE,股價是6266,複利回報是18%



30%折讓買入ROE是6%的企业,净産资值100元,税後盈利6元,買入價是100元x30%=30元,PE是5倍。

25年後税後盈利只有25.75,

假設到時PE=5倍,股價只有128,複利回報率便只有6%。


嘩,這就是優質和差勁公司的分别,那為什么筆者仍叫人買折讓低PE股?而這幾年來筆者的單一组合,每年有20%回報又從何來的?算盆又是如何打的?






15 則留言:

  1. 巴黎SIR 假設左兩間公司都唔派息,ROE=盈利增速,但實際上公司會派息。股息再投資可以提高折讓股投資威力。

    回覆刪除
  2. 另外,計算只集中計算PE先會有此結果,無考慮到PB,就算唔派息PB都會越來越低,但回報都會低過肯派高息既折讓股。

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. Ki Kwan兄,又被你分析中,我們的答案都是差不多,芒格的假設有兩點成立才對:
      1.即使一年一次的股息稅和股票增長稅也會消減長期回報率;
      2.兩支股都不派息。



      刪除
    2. 所以巴郡都不派息…😅😅

      刪除
    3. 巴老身体力行,非常有規律。

      刪除
  3. 多謝分享,請問如果公司有大量現金,在計算RoE的時候,Equity是否要減去現金的部份才能顯示出真正的return on equity?還是要自行估算營運所需現金來減去「多餘」現金?

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. 這是肯定的,以Apple的金山為例,股本中就算没有部份的「多餘」资金,也不会影响投资者的回報金额。

      刪除
  4. Hi Paris Sir,

    I think you calculation is based on the fact that all earnings are being reinvested back to the business.

    Indeed, you may find a more detailed discussion on ROIIC in the following blog by John Huber, he has a series of articles in relation to this topic.
    He also performed similar calculation like you, but in a slightly different way in the follow link:

    http://basehitinvesting.com/importance-of-roic-reinvestment-vs-legacy-moats/


    If you are interested in it, you may also start reading from the first of that series,

    http://basehitinvesting.com/importance-of-roic-part-1-compounders-and-cheap-stocks/

    Thanks for sharing!

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. 多謝Poor Charlie兄的分享,很好的文章,👍

      刪除
    2. Here is another one that is very nice reading too, historical ROE might be different from ROIIC (or ROIC according to Huber). A company with high ROE might have a low ROIIC if it cannot find projects with high return for them to further invest. Enjoy~

      http://basehitinvesting.com/thoughts-on-cost-of-capital-and-buffetts-1-test/

      刪除
    3. 好文多讀多益,谢谢。

      刪除
  5. 謝謝分享寶貴的知識。

    回覆刪除