tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post6385178819749781043..comments2024-03-27T13:33:11.706+08:00Comments on 巴黎的價值投資: 股神:以合理價格購入了不起企業巴黎http://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-70893103791761570762015-05-19T22:41:45.798+08:002015-05-19T22:41:45.798+08:00謝謝Redponza的指正。
巴黎謝謝Redponza的指正。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-24059030580738289832015-05-19T20:16:44.921+08:002015-05-19T20:16:44.921+08:00FYI, Shell is taking over BG (British Gas) instead...FYI, Shell is taking over BG (British Gas) instead of BP (British Petroleum)redponzahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12482736417233080153noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-79687609653377018232015-05-11T04:43:24.450+08:002015-05-11T04:43:24.450+08:00階段是不同,不過Elvin是比較ROA,也有道理。
巴黎階段是不同,不過Elvin是比較ROA,也有道理。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-38447313119035231662015-05-10T11:55:18.183+08:002015-05-10T11:55:18.183+08:002688和883始终不同行业,一个是资源股的石油,一个是公用行业的天然气管道,而且所处的阶段不同,我...2688和883始终不同行业,一个是资源股的石油,一个是公用行业的天然气管道,而且所处的阶段不同,我就觉得不能这样比较。法国梧桐树https://www.blogger.com/profile/08739733657914255986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-14014040719826855962015-05-09T12:12:46.917+08:002015-05-09T12:12:46.917+08:00Elvin Lai,多謝支持。
巴黎Elvin Lai,多謝支持。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-25194023291018892392015-05-08T23:52:06.057+08:002015-05-08T23:52:06.057+08:00多謝巴黎兄分析!多謝巴黎兄分析!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16402054355155194526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-10295349090378226312015-05-08T23:51:28.371+08:002015-05-08T23:51:28.371+08:00此留言已被作者移除。Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16402054355155194526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-26446564295066262882015-05-08T23:23:22.694+08:002015-05-08T23:23:22.694+08:00如果行業比行業,現在的石油業是毫不吸引,不過以長遠鐘擺原則,在它最低盈利下从10倍8倍買入行業領先者...如果行業比行業,現在的石油業是毫不吸引,不過以長遠鐘擺原則,在它最低盈利下从10倍8倍買入行業領先者,以息待戰,無妨。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-77749585067817927932015-05-08T23:04:21.637+08:002015-05-08T23:04:21.637+08:00Lai Elvin,新奧的ROA一睇就知係好野,不過債貸比太大,如果搏大,因為槓桿大,會係首選,不過...Lai Elvin,新奧的ROA一睇就知係好野,不過債貸比太大,如果搏大,因為槓桿大,會係首選,不過我會問,開細又點呢,咁就好自然會選擇行業平均較安全的883。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-91240323335281594652015-05-08T20:50:06.146+08:002015-05-08T20:50:06.146+08:00主要係見883今年首季資本開支下跌16%,而同期收入跌39%,先有驚減派息呢個憂慮,因佢平均派息比率...主要係見883今年首季資本開支下跌16%,而同期收入跌39%,先有驚減派息呢個憂慮,因佢平均派息比率都係約30%,開支佔比大。當然全年可能做好d, 但佢管理層之前都係目標降資本開支26%至35%,相信d開支唔容易大降Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17553803016656073716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-33755958864596213332015-05-08T19:10:51.223+08:002015-05-08T19:10:51.223+08:00883現價margin of safety唔夠,但要10元買到,並不容易呢!
巴黎兄,從圖一看到,2...883現價margin of safety唔夠,但要10元買到,並不容易呢!<br />巴黎兄,從圖一看到,2688的資產回報為9.17%,即2688每100元的資產,能賺9.17蚊,這代表他的營運效率能比美883, 對嗎? 2688的收入相對穩定,增長不錯. 派息低是否未能巴黎兄吸引哩? 又或是其「價值」的高未如理想?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16402054355155194526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-84572344385622093852015-05-08T15:56:54.921+08:002015-05-08T15:56:54.921+08:00中海油係好公司,我自己都想買入並長期持有. 只不過係現價未能完全反映低石油價格嘅沖擊。另一樣奇怪嘅係...中海油係好公司,我自己都想買入並長期持有. 只不過係現價未能完全反映低石油價格嘅沖擊。另一樣奇怪嘅係,2015Q1實現天然氣價格係做緊6元。如果照樣跌至市價2.x,對盈利都有一定影響. 假若油價回復至80+水平,#883 $10-11蚊就真係好抵買Gee Geehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07537065643049768521noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-8017702419581266502015-05-08T12:33:24.449+08:002015-05-08T12:33:24.449+08:00almondcake兄,你說的是有可能的。其實呢篇文的真正重點是怎樣分辨質優股和平凡股。中海油的董事...almondcake兄,你說的是有可能的。其實呢篇文的真正重點是怎樣分辨質優股和平凡股。中海油的董事長被抽起空降到中石油,就是最好的證明,如果朋友有留意Exxon(ROA是9.66%)和Conoco(ROA是4.95%)的第一季盈利,前者跌46%,後者跌倒虧損便明白誰人會最後倒下的強者。<br /><br />我的4格投資法中,對質優的股票,以合理價買入也是無妨,而市場是有一個合理價標準的。當然最好是10元買到。巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-92003206575132111452015-05-08T12:19:41.026+08:002015-05-08T12:19:41.026+08:00謝謝詳盡的計算,下次不妨留個名,多來給予意見。
至於中海油是龍是鳳,不妨繼續留意。
巴黎謝謝詳盡的計算,下次不妨留個名,多來給予意見。<br />至於中海油是龍是鳳,不妨繼續留意。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-29458170601219425772015-05-08T12:17:19.676+08:002015-05-08T12:17:19.676+08:00Johnson Lee, 其實朋友也可多看一會才決定不遲。
巴黎Johnson Lee, 其實朋友也可多看一會才決定不遲。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-48858244448628831362015-05-08T10:33:34.375+08:002015-05-08T10:33:34.375+08:00多謝巴黎兄分析, 我有一意見, 不知對不對, 大家可參詳一下.
中海油應該主力採油和出售原油. 但...多謝巴黎兄分析, 我有一意見, 不知對不對, 大家可參詳一下.<br />中海油應該主力採油和出售原油. 但 857 有大的下游產品和銷售網(油站等), 油價低時, 也可以也有這部分的差價賺, 因為油產品價應跌得比原油小.所以, 低油價對857的利潤沖蝕較細. 沒有任何數據在手, 完全是憑空想像. 謝謝!almondcakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16217883781788807352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-71232329398146933432015-05-08T09:25:13.136+08:002015-05-08T09:25:13.136+08:00相反,我對中海油呢年業績持著悲觀看法. 2014 中海油 實現油價係96元, 即係話就算油價2014...相反,我對中海油呢年業績持著悲觀看法. 2014 中海油 實現油價係96元, 即係話就算油價2014年中跌一半都係賣緊96蚊. 但去到2015年Q1, 實現油價跌至53元. 假若2015年每季產量和實現油價增長分別5%和10% (Production volume 2015Q1 = 118.3), 資本開支和其他開支比2014少大約30%, 稅后盈利將跌至470億左右. Earning per share = 1.08. 以P/E = 8 推算, 股價大約係$10.76Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-65396139845863193112015-05-07T23:49:04.459+08:002015-05-07T23:49:04.459+08:00GFC,唔覺佢過去的Free Cash Flow唔高,資本支出是要平行每年的折舊、保能盈行、增長三者...GFC,唔覺佢過去的Free Cash Flow唔高,資本支出是要平行每年的折舊、保能盈行、增長三者關係,如果亂咁使,買大了,成本就不能減,資產回報率就會跌。呢D要比D時間看管理層是否本事。<br /><br />巴黎<br />巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-44991040074155008482015-05-07T19:31:38.665+08:002015-05-07T19:31:38.665+08:00如果低油價令佢盈利下跌,而幅度上大過佢資本開支下跌,就令佢派息減小如果低油價令佢盈利下跌,而幅度上大過佢資本開支下跌,就令佢派息減小Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17553803016656073716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-32028376220872382852015-05-07T19:12:17.198+08:002015-05-07T19:12:17.198+08:00最concern反而係現價margin of safety唔夠, 佢市盈率雖然低,但計5年平均派息或...最concern反而係現價margin of safety唔夠, 佢市盈率雖然低,但計5年平均派息或free cash flow都唔高, 因為派息比率偏低,而果d資本開支係而家環境降到幾多似乎未能確定Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17553803016656073716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-2991528162770777462015-05-07T11:31:31.404+08:002015-05-07T11:31:31.404+08:00多謝巴黎兄指教。油股比較落後,真的要留意機會。
但國內油股受國策影響很大,添加了不少uncertai...多謝巴黎兄指教。油股比較落後,真的要留意機會。<br />但國內油股受國策影響很大,添加了不少uncertainty. J Lhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13285258767565070509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-32943650286831435392015-05-07T10:09:13.689+08:002015-05-07T10:09:13.689+08:00正是,油價跌,成本也會跌,好的公司自己總有方法。
巴黎正是,油價跌,成本也會跌,好的公司自己總有方法。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-83634634034500910642015-05-07T10:08:04.746+08:002015-05-07T10:08:04.746+08:00cleverpeople,單睇過資產回報率就是中海油最高,效率一定好過中石油,
不過無端端把中海油個...cleverpeople,單睇過資產回報率就是中海油最高,效率一定好過中石油,<br />不過無端端把中海油個董事長調到中石油去救火,總會幫到中石油。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-5939268378895296132015-05-07T10:02:52.555+08:002015-05-07T10:02:52.555+08:00呢排是派息日,和味!!
巴黎呢排是派息日,和味!!<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-64145151399709622512015-05-07T09:54:07.859+08:002015-05-07T09:54:07.859+08:00感謝巴黎兄詳細分享,,
3桶油我較喜歡857中石油,,
不過之前883曾大花費去收購,,回報好像不理...感謝巴黎兄詳細分享,,<br />3桶油我較喜歡857中石油,,<br />不過之前883曾大花費去收購,,回報好像不理想,,<br />未來難估計,,但小注也可以,,<br />努力,,互勉之...<br />cleverpeople...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com