tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post395289944629271292..comments2024-03-27T13:33:11.706+08:00Comments on 巴黎的價值投資: 加注互太巴黎http://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comBlogger77125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-65800082636389799392015-06-26T12:51:21.347+08:002015-06-26T12:51:21.347+08:00黃仔,今早股價上升了6%,市場是正面的。
我會出文分享的!
巴黎黃仔,今早股價上升了6%,市場是正面的。<br />我會出文分享的!<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-71503770481264916942015-06-25T18:22:41.394+08:002015-06-25T18:22:41.394+08:00Hello 巴黎
互太出左全年業績,巴黎兄你點睇?謝謝
黃仔Hello 巴黎<br /><br />互太出左全年業績,巴黎兄你點睇?謝謝<br /><br />黃仔Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-45171454008523291572015-06-08T22:37:54.946+08:002015-06-08T22:37:54.946+08:00多謝Tsang兄弟的建議,其實我的買賣不多,你們實在知我的動向。
在Big4做買股就要小心内部的指...多謝Tsang兄弟的建議,其實我的買賣不多,你們實在知我的動向。<br /><br />在Big4做買股就要小心内部的指引。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-27379982349348909962015-06-08T14:14:41.975+08:002015-06-08T14:14:41.975+08:00Hello 巴黎~小弟今年23,喺big 4做~睇完呢篇文章分析,買左互太,多謝你嘅分析同無私公開自...Hello 巴黎~小弟今年23,喺big 4做~睇完呢篇文章分析,買左互太,多謝你嘅分析同無私公開自己組合(有D建議:希望巴黎你關於股市操作嘅文章,都用上加注丶買入丶沽出呢D字眼,好似呢篇咁,提醒一眾讀者,參考巴黎的動向~謝謝!)大佬Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16559216623865694693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-61714601710529691202015-06-07T18:46:53.421+08:002015-06-07T18:46:53.421+08:00這是好建議。也可直接去公司的官方網下載。
巴黎這是好建議。也可直接去公司的官方網下載。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-20321953534854183752015-06-07T18:43:37.101+08:002015-06-07T18:43:37.101+08:00有時我跳了兩歩,故可能引致你們難明白,下次嚐試唔跳步。
巴黎有時我跳了兩歩,故可能引致你們難明白,下次嚐試唔跳步。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-64370720896126538112015-06-07T17:43:51.922+08:002015-06-07T17:43:51.922+08:00看來只能查披露易上面的財務報表看來只能查披露易上面的財務報表lzhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10619779975646964209noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-17928447856768130902015-06-07T00:51:10.445+08:002015-06-07T00:51:10.445+08:00謝謝回覆。
那我再想: 即是公司管理層精明,能找到便宜的機器,為股東慳錢。這想法對不對?
另外,可能...謝謝回覆。<br />那我再想: 即是公司管理層精明,能找到便宜的機器,為股東慳錢。這想法對不對?<br />另外,可能我尚未太看得懂年報,覺得「平均每年平均潻置的資產值是小於其折舊損秏」這一句,真是很細心才能歸納得出呀!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-34440831691631571912015-06-07T00:11:51.748+08:002015-06-07T00:11:51.748+08:00謝謝Riva兄的補充,所以買股票前最好要先看年報。
巴黎謝謝Riva兄的補充,所以買股票前最好要先看年報。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-40308539019220932522015-06-07T00:04:22.335+08:002015-06-07T00:04:22.335+08:00正是。
巴黎正是。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-3117615760102051402015-06-06T23:00:03.506+08:002015-06-06T23:00:03.506+08:00即是假設一部機器是折舊100元,財務盈利便少了100元,但用來買新機只用了70元,即是慳了30元,而...即是假設一部機器是折舊100元,財務盈利便少了100元,但用來買新機只用了70元,即是慳了30元,而這30元就派了息出去。是否這樣理解?<br /><br />THANKS!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-47424688373451685832015-06-06T20:02:50.485+08:002015-06-06T20:02:50.485+08:00問得好,互太平均每年平均潻置的資產值是小於其折舊損秏,所以自由現金流是大於財務盈利。
巴黎問得好,互太平均每年平均潻置的資產值是小於其折舊損秏,所以自由現金流是大於財務盈利。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-3791217445091913682015-06-06T01:40:10.892+08:002015-06-06T01:40:10.892+08:00巴黎兄你好,我看互太連續三年的派息比都高於100%,派息比盈利還多,到底這些錢從何處來? 對未來業務...巴黎兄你好,我看互太連續三年的派息比都高於100%,派息比盈利還多,到底這些錢從何處來? 對未來業務的影響是正是負?<br />謝謝指教!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-49734896226629757042015-06-04T21:24:07.192+08:002015-06-04T21:24:07.192+08:00恭喜你,三十幾歲還有大把時間追,加油。
Google好似沒有你說的指標。
巴黎恭喜你,三十幾歲還有大把時間追,加油。<br />Google好似沒有你說的指標。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-34449347940352637552015-06-04T19:01:22.308+08:002015-06-04T19:01:22.308+08:00巴黎兄, 剛開始閱讀你的網頁, 本人已經三十幾歲, 剛開始學投資不夠, 雖然有一點遲, 但希望學好基...巴黎兄, 剛開始閱讀你的網頁, 本人已經三十幾歲, 剛開始學投資不夠, 雖然有一點遲, 但希望學好基礎, 呢幾日讀完一本叫 "打敗大盤的獲利公式", 裡面提到用ROC 同 Earnings Yeild 去排, 我試過用 google finance, 並沒有這兩個指標可選, 想請教Google finance 有沒有類似的指標以助分析股票, 謝謝.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-11874354381835283422015-06-02T21:53:53.116+08:002015-06-02T21:53:53.116+08:006288.HK 是預托證券,1股只=實際1/100,很多報價服務都輸入了錯誤數據,結果PE細了100...6288.HK 是預托證券,1股只=實際1/100,很多報價服務都輸入了錯誤數據,結果PE細了100倍。沒留意既投資者真係陰公。<br /><br />RivaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-87281689824495989712015-06-01T09:53:21.846+08:002015-06-01T09:53:21.846+08:00文仔,我舊文也有分析過德永佳,Mike兄弟的想法也可能是對,其實用四格投資法劃分,可能兩支都跌入在內...文仔,我舊文也有分析過德永佳,Mike兄弟的想法也可能是對,其實用四格投資法劃分,可能兩支都跌入在內說不定。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-62079638612829804422015-06-01T09:48:43.615+08:002015-06-01T09:48:43.615+08:00Mike兄弟,我也希望朋友多求NetNet股,例如之前的川河這一類,因為買wonderful 的公司...Mike兄弟,我也希望朋友多求NetNet股,例如之前的川河這一類,因為買wonderful 的公司,真的要像Philips Fisher的360度打聽。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-68820546515080840672015-05-31T22:29:09.705+08:002015-05-31T22:29:09.705+08:00覺得德永佳有可能被零售拖累業績,所以嘗試從年報找數字,嘗試比較德永佳同互太的紡織業務。
德永佳紡織...覺得德永佳有可能被零售拖累業績,所以嘗試從年報找數字,嘗試比較德永佳同互太的紡織業務。<br /><br />德永佳紡織業務:<br />2014年<br />Revenue (千港幣): $5, 026, 253<br />Gross Profit (千港幣): $671, 116<br />Gross Profit Margin: 13.4%<br /><br />Fixed Asset (廠房及機器, 廠房及機器及傢具及設備, 租賃土地, 樓宇): $1, 657, 075<br />Sales-to-Fixed Asset: 3.03倍<br /><br /><br />2013年<br />Revenue (千港幣): $5, 460, 229<br />Gross Profit (千港幣): $545, 882<br />Gross Profit Margin: 10.0%<br /><br />Fixed Asset (廠房及機器, 廠房及機器及傢具及設備, 租賃土地, 樓宇): $1, 815, 996<br />Sales-to-Fixed Asset: 3.01倍<br /><br /><br />互太紡織業務:<br />2014年<br />Revenue (千港幣): $7, 423, 481<br />Gross Profit (千港幣): $1, 361, 371<br />Gross Profit Margin: 18.3%<br /><br />Fixed Asset (廠房及機器, 廠房及機器及傢具及設備, 租賃土地, 樓宇): $1, 041, 706<br />Sales-to-Fixed Asset: 7.13倍<br /><br /><br />2013年<br />Revenue (千港幣): $6, 649, 206<br />Gross Profit (千港幣): $1, 181, 534<br />Gross Profit Margin: 17.8%<br /><br />Fixed Asset (廠房及機器, 廠房及機器及傢具及設備, 租賃土地, 樓宇): $1, 050, 479<br />Sales-to-Fixed Asset: 6.33倍<br /><br />當然,以上不過是粗略的計算,大概做個比較。<br /><br /><br />還有兩個東西:<br />1. 德永佳的Property, Plant And Equipment 有艘遊艇!<br />2. 董事執行酬金,德永佳2014支付$83, 865, 000 比較互太的$35, 489, 000<br /><br />- 文boonchin.nghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13837327834666862796noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-32198231777492107672015-05-31T22:27:11.113+08:002015-05-31T22:27:11.113+08:00此留言已被作者移除。boonchin.nghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13837327834666862796noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-91408442338749956172015-05-31T20:39:52.866+08:002015-05-31T20:39:52.866+08:00Mike Chan 在您的文章「加注互太」留下新留言:
And I think Buffett&...Mike Chan 在您的文章「加注互太」留下新留言: <br /><br />And I think Buffett's fair/wonderful comment does not apply to everyone of us. Today, people might say Buffett also does not buy net-net stocks anymore and this fair/wonderful price/business comment is the evidence. But I believe no, that is wrong. Net-net is not suitable for Berskshire' size and the availability of cash flow. With that much cash flow coming in every quarter or month, he needs to buy sustainable business to get long term high and capital intensive ROIC. Just like BNSF the railway business, the ROE is good enough and he can earn that return even if he puts in billions of dollars. He cannot earn much by putting in billions into See's Candy. He certainly cannot buy net-nets to satisfy his billions of cash flow. That's why to him, it's better to buy wonderful company, because that is sustainable for the size and continuity of cash flow Berkshire generates.<br />On an Indian trip, Buffett personally says that if he were managing small sums of money today, he would be buying classic Ben Graham type of stocks, And he did personally on the Korean market. He still likes classic cigar butts, it's just that Berkshire is too big to do that. Here'e the link to his comment in India: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2R7sy-77q0<br />I think this video can somewhat answer which of the quantity/quality style better. Some people may think quality always trumps quantity and say Ben Graham’s idea is dated. This tells everyone to think twice before saying that. By the way, I think you can 天知’s 草木皆為我所用is the best answer on market. Growth is uncertain but if you’re right you can do less with good and sustainable returns. Cigar butt is certain but the value could erode over time. If you know an industry enough, then quality is your type. If you don’t, then quantity may work better. All depends on how much you know.<br />Oops, 860 words…sorry.<br /><br />Mike Chan 在您的文章「加注互太」留下新留言:<br /><br />巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-48050203674702434352015-05-31T09:35:53.757+08:002015-05-31T09:35:53.757+08:00感謝Mike兄弟的意見,分析股票是很易掉入假如這支股票如果那樣做,它的價值就會上升如何如何,例如你說...感謝Mike兄弟的意見,分析股票是很易掉入假如這支股票如果那樣做,它的價值就會上升如何如何,例如你說的德永佳現金應該再派多些,ROE就能上升,或只要零售做好些,整體就好很多。但我做過上市公司的財務長,我可以告訴你,做成我們看到的面貌,就是一連串漏習,一些原本是人材的人會不知不覺間降了level去配合公司,因此我深深體會到不要和股票有感情,如果你見到是這樣,它會一路是這樣。互太也一樣放置大筆現金,它的ROA也是可以做得更好,但我們不是管理層。<br /><br />我不會說德永佳不值得買入,要看什麼價錢,和個人對它的認識深淺。我個人也沒有巴老對買公平價優質股的直覺,所以我的組合沒有一支是這種股。唯一一支互太是因為「某種緣份」,如果沒有這種「緣份」,我也未必買它。<br /><br />巴黎<br /><br /><br />巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-22138596930632334932015-05-31T00:16:28.741+08:002015-05-31T00:16:28.741+08:00The ROA difference is due to 1) the underperformin...The ROA difference is due to 1) the underperforming retail business and 2) excess cash on balance sheet. On 2), if you assume Texwinca pays out excess cash till the net cash/market cap ratio is close to Pacific Textiles’, then the ROE could easily be high-teens. If the retail and textile business do better, the ROE could be close to PT’s mid-twenties level. You may say that means PT’s management is cleverer at using cash but there is some legacy issue involved. PT’s two biggest shareholders (one totally cashed out a few months ago) are in their 80s with no 2nd generation in the company. Of course, they would like to get out all the cash. Texwinca’s chairman is only in his 60s, still young and he does not want to take out all the cash. But Texwinca’s distribution policy seems to be changing in a good way.<br /><br />No doubt that Pacific Textiles is now in a better shape than Texwinca but I would say part of the gap is due to the loss making retail business. Now the general retail environment for Chinese causal wear retail is way better than before because the oversupply problem is not as severe as 2-3 years ago. You cannot blame them for being too aggressive in 2011 in their China retail because that was kind of a gold rush period that everyone was expanding like crazy to get market share. If you did not expand and did not grow as fast as your peers, you feel inferior and your shareholders will shout at you. Of course, we as an outsider in 2015 could say they were stupid to expand that fast. But, hey, easy for you to say, your weren't the management. Anyhow, Texwinca's retail is coming back.<br /><br />On Texwinca's textiles business, they are changing their orders to high value ones so that the long term prospective is better when the cheap South East Asia manufacturing is uprising and that’s why the GPM is higher than Pacific Textiles's. But of course, since PT's got 50% of its orders from Uniqlo and that's why the lower SG&A expenses and the higher OPM. But that's kind of a customer concentration risk too. Some might say concentration could force someone to be more focused to excel so the risk is lower. That could be right, but to some, that's not a good thing. Anyways, Texwinca's textile should be better than 2-3 years ago. <br /><br />Basically I expect these two changing trends with a high payout ratio. The forward PE is much lower, PT is trading at a 50-60% premium to Texwinca and I would say that's too wide of a gap given the mentioned considerations. And I ask, how wide do you think is warranted? Would you say that the buy PT conclusion will not change even if PT is trading at 20x and Texwinca is trading at 4x? Buffett's comment looks intuitive but I would say it's actually a very tough question. Recall Ben Graham's saying for every asset, there must be a price so dear to sell and so cheap to buy. The judgement shouldn't stop at which company is better. Still, you need to ask at what price.<br />Mike Chanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02954466566829974373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-79779139957576989312015-05-30T15:13:57.141+08:002015-05-30T15:13:57.141+08:00Wong Tak Ming君,不如以例子解釋,兩部機器都是一樣值一萬元,最高可達一天8件制品,但甲公...Wong Tak Ming君,不如以例子解釋,兩部機器都是一樣值一萬元,最高可達一天8件制品,但甲公司顧用普通人只產出5件,乙公司請了個神人,每天能產出20件。現兩公司連同操作員一起放售。我會付3萬9元買乙公司,因為我需要以4萬買4間甲公司才産出20件,兼可能要請多一個管工和機修員。<br /><br />而甲公司的折舊費用較乙公司多四倍,如果機器加價,折舊費用相差會越來越大,返來的現金也會小了。<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-90886474027257246232015-05-30T14:41:51.222+08:002015-05-30T14:41:51.222+08:00努力加油,互勉!
巴黎努力加油,互勉!<br /><br />巴黎巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.com