tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post23813274959691511..comments2024-03-27T13:33:11.706+08:00Comments on 巴黎的價值投資: 爲何坚持高息很重要巴黎http://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-55606634701355445002018-02-14T07:16:46.752+08:002018-02-14T07:16:46.752+08:00算式沒有錯,但實際要看市場的飽和和同業的競爭程度。算式沒有錯,但實際要看市場的飽和和同業的競爭程度。巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-71248689167768112142018-02-12T23:01:25.566+08:002018-02-12T23:01:25.566+08:00我關注既係之後ROE會否再一直降,又或者盈利會否增長。假設ROE=15%,派息30%,正常盈利增長=...我關注既係之後ROE會否再一直降,又或者盈利會否增長。假設ROE=15%,派息30%,正常盈利增長=15%-15%X0.3=10.5%,因為我推算長期每年回報大約15%X30%+每年盈利增長。Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17621072153320534480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-36501616953121936342018-02-12T22:49:00.164+08:002018-02-12T22:49:00.164+08:00多數人會以巴郡不派息去掩饰個人投机的目的。
而保留盈利不派息再投资的管理层,必须附合很多因素和特質,...多數人會以巴郡不派息去掩饰個人投机的目的。<br />而保留盈利不派息再投资的管理层,必须附合很多因素和特質,並不容易發掘。<br />巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-40940315942562079332018-02-12T21:38:10.503+08:002018-02-12T21:38:10.503+08:00內銀ROE由多年前的20%以上一直走下來到今天的15%,因此说ROE是15%是真的,说盈利没有增長也...內銀ROE由多年前的20%以上一直走下來到今天的15%,因此说ROE是15%是真的,说盈利没有增長也是真的。<br />你的要求很合理,加油。巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-7115928737959010642018-02-11T22:57:27.459+08:002018-02-11T22:57:27.459+08:00其實我花大力氣去整理凱恩斯的投資理論主要為了要去好好了解巴菲特投資的投資理論之所本。據他常為人印證的...其實我花大力氣去整理凱恩斯的投資理論主要為了要去好好了解巴菲特投資的投資理論之所本。據他常為人印證的話:I’m 15% Fisher and 85% Benjamin Graham.可能是誤導,這句話可能首見於John Train的The Midas Touch: The strategies that have made Warren Buffett the world's most successful investor(May 11, 2009)。是不是巴菲特本人所說我不能肯定。但我能肯定的是,巴菲特晚年的投資方法漸漸脫離Graham而傾向於Keynes。所以,我只好好好地理解Keynes。ch liuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01201021181210079869noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-26631975148955181042018-02-11T22:42:30.395+08:002018-02-11T22:42:30.395+08:00剛剛整理The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes ...剛剛整理The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes Vol. 12 的資料,發現編者Donald Moggridge異常細心,他整理出凱恩斯長期投資股票的英國公司與美國公司的dividends成一張表(Table 4),從1920年至1945年(凱恩斯逝世於9146年)的股息分配。看得出英國公司不管平時或二戰時派息均不受影響,美國的大公司則在1941年美國參戰後盈利必須按比例上繳政府作軍費(導致Graham與Templeton都只投資於小型公司!),從這張表,我看出凱恩斯自全球大蕭條後的1933年大量投資於美國優質公司,而且我也注意到他與朋友們在1921年7月組成的The A.D.Investment Trust公司在1923年至1927年間的股息很高,“dividend ran at 10 per cent per annum”。這印證了他在他的名著《通論》第12掌中所說的話:<br />It is rare, one is told, for an American to invest, as many Englishmen still do, “for income”; and he will not readily purchase an investment except in the hope of capital appreciation. This is only another way of saying that, when he purchases an investment, the American is attaching his hopes, not so much to its prospective yield, as to a favourable change in the conventional basis of valuation, i.e. that he is, in the above sense, a speculator.<br />很多人在股票市場裡耗了大半輩子的時間,竟然沒能注意到為什麼價值投資者為什麼這麼注重“for income”! <br />ch liuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01201021181210079869noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-7677942955638488132018-02-11T00:07:52.413+08:002018-02-11T00:07:52.413+08:00市埸真係非常少低PE,高ROE股票,內銀算係高ROE低PB,但係保留盈餘太多。假設ROE=15%,每...市埸真係非常少低PE,高ROE股票,內銀算係高ROE低PB,但係保留盈餘太多。假設ROE=15%,每100元資產可以產生15元盈利,但保留盈餘每100元根本沒有再賺多15%,ROE一直下降。所以內銀實際回報會比計算的要低。<br />除非好大型股災先可能出現咁平又有質素既股票,所以我自己對組合回報要求不高,假設2800計及股息長期回報有8%,我希望有10%已經足夠,否則太高要求例如20%,我無能力係而家市況搵到。Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17621072153320534480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-60116588788329145582018-02-11T00:07:14.159+08:002018-02-11T00:07:14.159+08:00本身例子也很易明。本身例子也很易明。巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-81943886763410342452018-02-10T21:04:16.496+08:002018-02-10T21:04:16.496+08:00要2/3PB又如此高ROE非常小有,内銀正是很特殊的例子。要2/3PB又如此高ROE非常小有,内銀正是很特殊的例子。巴黎https://www.blogger.com/profile/09026111255713306999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-80247155978728193482018-02-10T01:00:30.368+08:002018-02-10T01:00:30.368+08:00謝謝分享。長線投資最重要的是股息與股息增長,完全同意。
但是,由於ROE=PB/PE(Earning...謝謝分享。長線投資最重要的是股息與股息增長,完全同意。<br />但是,由於ROE=PB/PE(Earnings/Book Value),假如我們採取Graham的方法2/3的book value買進一家公司的話,那麼,PB就是0.67。ROE高於15%的話,那麼,PE將只有4.47倍。目前我只發現香港市場似乎只有幾家較好的內銀股出現過這種可能性,不然,一般ROE在15%以上的好公司通常PB都很高。<br />ch liuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01201021181210079869noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-55396805005344498412018-02-09T18:24:03.181+08:002018-02-09T18:24:03.181+08:00Paris Sir,
very good illustration, thank you.Paris Sir,<br /><br />very good illustration, thank you.lolohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10535766541843761706noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176979440585416248.post-80156301136259954692018-02-09T10:13:57.813+08:002018-02-09T10:13:57.813+08:00Student says:
Tony Sir,
I agree with you. ^_^ Student says:<br /><br />Tony Sir,<br /><br />I agree with you. ^_^ Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com