2010年12月29日星期三

要姓賴, 不要談宏觀經濟

巴黎:

以下是Walter Schloss總結自已半生投資生涯的16規條,有人曾問他,為何不注重宏觀經濟,只著重價值投資?價值投資的股票價格不是也會在經濟轉壞時下跌嗎?

他回答:"不是這樣的,以價值投資買的股票,好環境是會升的,在經濟低迷時慢一點吧!"

一些朋友,年前叫別人不要踫美股,說美股無運行,到現在仍執迷不悟。也有一些朋友,眼見筆者的AIG大升之際,突然非常客觀清醒、並隨風擺柳地轉口風。

筆者在站內,只有一篇宏觀經濟論說,錢多貨少,貨價必升,沒有什麽高深理論,只叫大家不要見貨就買。

為何筆者不喜多談宏觀經濟呢?

因為:如果你不談宏觀經濟,你就不能夠再為自已昨天的錯誤找籍口開脫!

你不會再說,因為外圍影響、因為中央打擊乜乜、因為中央加息、因為12.5改變政策、因為對農民、對汽車、對乜對物改變了.......樣樣都不是你的錯,是其它人引致你賺不到錢!引致那支股票不升價!

不談宏觀經濟後,你就會認真考慮以下的問題:

我幹嗎從來未有好好研究、分析這間企業在變化經濟環境的考驗能力?
我為何從未有認真了解這間企業究竟價值有多少?!
我為何從不作最壞的準備?!
我的分析、思考架構方法存在著什麼問題!?

股票買錯並不是投資道路上最致命,在分析前就找定代罪人才是。而唯有你不以宏觀經濟分析買股票,你才會勇敢對自已所做的任何決定負責!

在只有20%的人賺錢的股票市場,做眾人所做的事從來不會令你有好成績!


Walter Schloss 16 rules

1. Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value


2. Try to establish the value of the company. Remember that a share of
stock represents a part of a business and is not just a piece of paper.


3. Use book value as a starting point to try and establish the value of
the enterprise. Be sure that debt does not equal 100% of the equity.
(Capital and surplus for the common stock).


4. Have patience. Stocks don’t go up immediately.


5. Don’t buy on tips or for a quick move. Let the professionals do that, if they can. Don’t sell on bad news.


6. Don’t be afraid to be a loner but be sure that you are correct in
your judgment. You can’t be 100% certain but try to look for the
weaknesses in your thinking. Buy on a scale down and sell on a scale up.


7. Have the courage of your convictions once you have made a decision.


8. Have a philosophy of investment and try to follow it. The above is a way that I’ve found successful.


9. Don’t be in too much of a hurry to see. If the stock reaches a price
that you think is a fair one, then you can sell but often because a
stock goes up say 50%, people say sell it and button up your profit.
Before selling try to reevaluate the company again and see where the
stock sells in relation to its book value. Be aware of the level of the
stock market. Are yields low and P-E rations high. If the stock market
historically high. Are people very optimistic etc?


10. When buying a stock, I find it heldful to buy near the low of the
past few years. A stock may go as high as 125 and then decline to 60 and
you think it attractive. 3 yeas before the stock sold at 20 which shows
that there is some vulnerability in it.


11. Try to buy assets at a discount than to buy earnings. Earning can
change dramatically in a short time. Usually assets change slowly. One
has to know much more about a company if one buys earnings.


12. Listen to suggestions from people you respect. This doesn’t mean you
have to accept them. Remember it’s your money and generally it is
harder to keep money than to make it. Once you lose a lot of money, it
is hard to make it back.


13. Try not to let your emotions affect your judgment. Fear and greed
are probably the worst emotions to have inconnection with purchase and
sale of stocks.


14. Remember the work compounding. For example, if you can make 12% a
year and reinvest the money back, you will double your money in 6 yrs,
taxes excluded. Remember the rule of 72. Your rate of return into 72
will tell you the number of years to double your money.


15. Prefer stock over bonds. Bonds will limit your gains and inflation will reduce your purchasing power.


16. Be careful of leverage. It can go against you.

8 則留言:

  1. 要bookmark咗呢頁.....
    [版主回覆12/30/2010 02:47:00](Empty)

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  2. 1. Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value
    I thought that the formula of PEXPB=22.5 indicates the same thing. Buy on a scale down and sell on a scale up.
    What's the meaning of scale? I don't know what he really means. Or is it only a blurred idea?
    [版主回覆12/30/2010 02:47:00]第一點是個泛指。其中一個會包括你說的方程式。 Scale在這裡是說,內在價值=價格的平率。 他先說Don't be afraid to be a loner,是暗示了大部份人的做法是在價格下跌時沽貨,在上升時買貨。即他們是在內在價值>價格的 Scale down時候賣,在價值<價格 Scale up時買。

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  3. 在只有20%的人賺錢的股票市場,做眾人所做的事從來不會令你有好成績!
    [版主回覆12/30/2010 02:31:00](Empty)

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  4. 巴黎先生, GOOGLE居然有中文簡譯繁的功能,我還真是孤陋寡聞哈。 最近讀到GRAHAM的二十多三十章,有此感想:在不同時代,華爾街的著眼點都不同, 二十世紀初,他們著眼於Balance sheet的資產數量,數量越大,估值越高; 而各公司也樂於在合理的前提下把資產價值寫大,以換取更高的市值。 二三十年代,華爾街著眼於每股收益,而罔顧賬面資產,這也就導致了公司們完全相反的做法:刻意把固定資產和商譽註銷到1元,避免每年的折舊和攤還費用, 以便吹高盈利數字。 時過境遷之下,華爾街又走過了對P/E和P/E的崇拜。 如今,我個人感覺華爾街注重的是收入的趨勢和ROE,這也就導致瞭如今的公司們入賬的時候刻意平緩每年的數字,並且做出非理性的股票回購,以達到維持收入的上升趨勢 和穩定而令人滿意的書面ROE。 我的看法是否有所偏頗? 還望不吝賜教。
    [版主回覆12/31/2010 07:42:00]看來你正是巴老說的"在幾公鐘內明白以$0.5能買$1價值"的其中一份子。 你以經說盡了投資的真諦-----要增加每股資產淨值, 其它所有的ROI, ROE....目的都是想計算資產淨值變化的效率而已。 我今天會出一篇這類罔顧股東真正權益的公司,其中一個是美國銀行。美銀只是滄海一粟,我也會稍後出一篇關於在股東和經理私人利益平衡得很好的實例的富國銀行。 我會以實際它們13年以上的數字去證明兩者的分別,不要看輕這種分別,在很短的時間,例如—、兩年,可能實事求事的企業的真正財務,未遇知音人跑輸,但長期而看,一秒間的苟且,將可能是資金未來一倍相差的分別!

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  5. 3. Be sure that debt does not equal 100% of the equity.
    (Capital and surplus for the common stock). 這句不太明。
    [版主回覆12/31/2010 04:14:00]這句說,大部份人只注意一支所謂同業最大的企業。 又或規模最大,資產增大、資產是最大。 Walter是說 Total assets < > 股東權益 Total Assets - Total Liabilities =股東權益 因此一間企業,今年的資產規模可能大增10倍,但股東權益卻下跌。

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  6. 4. Have patience. Stocks don’t go up immediately.  絕對是今年小弟所得的教訓 3. Use book value as a starting point to try and establish the value of the enterprise. Be sure that debt does not equal 100% of the equity. (Capital and surplus for the common stock).  小弟學睇財務報表咁耐,就是睇唔明"咩叫book value"。Peter Lynch在"One Up On WALL STREET"對book value的解釋十分獨到,小弟有空會分享一下。
    [版主回覆12/31/2010 09:19:00]Alibaba君的AIG在16元上下買的,你知道在這年半中他最多做的是什麼事? 旅遊!享受人生! 一隻只佔5%的組合的AIG足夠令他全個組合上升15%(他aig賺了若300%)。有耐性是成功的第一步。 Book Value很簡單,就是公告的Book Value。 此處是說"Starting Point"而不是結束,所以我們即使不相信企業的公告,我們仍是有需要以它公告的作為起始研究!

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  7. Thanks for sharing!
    [版主回覆12/31/2010 04:20:00](Empty)

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  8. 多謝先生,祝新年快樂,身體健康最重要! Peter Lynch said that don't bottom fish. I conceive that it can be mixed with NO.4 Patience. Mr 精工 has also quoted a nice saying "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" - John Maynard Keynes 以前玩模擬組合成日都見到好似低價好吸引,可惜低處好鬼寒,錯的正是沒有耐性。
    [版主回覆12/31/2010 04:33:00]買入低殘股是有條件的。 千萬不要試圖估計大市會幾時反彈,切記,反彈是"Bonus",不反彈是你要面對的事情。 因此,買低殘的股票必須是有"合理的每股資產"充當你買入的價格的比例的支持。 很多人都知Graham買入GEICO保險公司賺了天文數字的錢,GEICO是因為創新了保險的生意模式賺大錢。那些批評價值投資人會說,這是靠前景賺錢的例子。 不過我們可以從Graham說給Walter的一句說話看出價值投資的精要: "放心,如果他們(GEICO)的方法不行,我們也可清它盆,不會有損失" 即如果銅弊的一面是公,我們賺大錢,如果是字,我們賺合理的回報。 買入低殘的股票的重點是: 如果大市持續低迷,我們賺合理的回報,如果大市改善到正常,我們賺大錢。 有這個心理,就不會強求,不會無耐性,有股票大升時,也不會發了瘋般忘形,也不會不夠膽賺盡它!

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